Despite finishing on top of the ladder the Fremantle Dockers have had their critics and doubters since mid season when their early season dominance began to somewhat wane.
That chorus of critics has now reached a crescendo following Hawthorn’s demolition of Adelaide on Friday night at the MCG, setting up a Preliminary Final next Friday night between the 2013 Grand Finalists.
As the Hawks piled on the goals, chatter predictably turned to the Dockers, who according to their critics would be rocking in a corner in the foetal position in awe of Hawthorn’s fire power.
Aside from Fremantle supporters, few if any experts or supporters give the Dockers a realistic chance of defeating Hawthorn on Friday night. But Fremantle’s prospects of making just their second ever Grand Final are strong, and here’s why.
Hawthorn’s Form is Overrated
It seems to have been quickly forgotten that just over a week ago Hawthorn was comprehensively beaten by West Coast in Perth in a Qualifying Final. But the manner in which the Hawks dismantled the Crows has many convinced that the “real” Hawks are back, while dismissing some evidence to the contrary.
Freo coach Ross Lyon put the Hawks’ dominance against Adelaide into perspective at half time at the game, describing the contest as mere “circle work”, presumably missing only witches hats.
While the Crows were brave and universally admired for achieving all they did in the most challenging circumstances imaginable this season, the defensive pressure they brought to Friday night’s contest bears no resemblance to the manic defensive mindset and approach that Fremantle will take into the Preliminary Final.
Freo’s Players are fresh and the Hawks are taking the hard road home
Most of Fremantle’s players have had a break from playing in two of the past four weeks, following mass resting of players in round 23 and as a reward for winning their Qualifying Final in week one of the finals. They are as fresh and injury free as they could possibly hope to be this far into September.
So the majority of Fremantle’s players haven’t travelled for a month given that most of their core group didn’t travel to Adelaide to play the Power in the final round. For a team with such a heavy travel load, the positives that come from this respite for their battle weary bodies cannot be overstated.
In contrast, the Hawks, so often used to a deserved and well-earned dream run into the Grand Final, will have to win their spot in this year’s Grand Final via the long hard road, a most unfamiliar prospect for them.
For example, last year Hawthorn played the final five games of their season (including the Grand Final) at their home and fortress, the MCG.
In each of their previous two premiership seasons the Hawks have won their Qualifying Final at the MCG, had a week’s break and then booked their place in the Grand Final with a Preliminary Final win at the MCG.
Will this season’s challenging journey to the Grand Final with two trips to far flung Perth and no week’s break prove to be a spark for a Hawthorn side perhaps becoming a little too comfortable with winning or will it prove too much for a club used to taking a familiar, comfortable and easy route to ultimate game of the season?
This time Freo has the home ground advantage
Let’s face it, Hawthorn have been very hard to play against in recent seasons at their two homes, the MCG and Launceston. In fact, Fremantle have been on the receiving end of some big losses to Hawthorn in recent years at both venues.
But, if there’s anywhere that the Dockers would want to play Hawthorn it’s on their own home turf of Subiaco. Hawthorn’s record at Domain Stadium since 2012 is mediocre, winning just two of their five games there against either West Australian side.
The Dockers have been almost impossible to beat at Domain stadium this season, winning ten out of eleven games where they have the home ground advantage (i.e excluding Western Derbies).
The Dockers brains trust would be quietly thrilled to be taking on Hawthorn on Freo’s home turf where the Hawks are vulnerable and where the Dockers know how to exploit the unique dimensions of the playing arena, rather than meeting them a week later at the MCG.
In fact, if a Western Derby Grand Final comes to fruition then the MCG is effectively a neutral venue for both sides, rather than Freo yet again playing Hawthorn for the premiership at the Hawks’ fortress.
Fremantle’s small forwards are firing
With livewire small forward Hayden Ballantyne having returned from a long injury lay off last week and teaming up with his partner in crime Michael Walters, the Fremantle forward unit looked lively, dangerous and quick.
Just as importantly, combined with Chris Mayne, their defensive pressure in the forward half was critical in getting the Dockers over the line against an impressive Swans outfit. Ballantyne will only be better for the run and should be ready to go for the prelim.
Ruck dominance can be capitalised on
If Hawthorn have a weakness, and its hard to identify many, it’s their ruck division. Two of McEvoy, Ceglar and Hale pitted against the most dominant tap ruckman in the game, Aaron Sandilands, represents a big advantage for Freo that just has to be exploited.
Coach Lyon often states that the game is won and lost in the midfield. With Sandilands dominating ruck contests it needs to translate to hit outs to the advantage of Freo’s midfield guns Fyfe, Mundy, Neale and Barlow.
If Freo can take advantage of the ruck mismatch then they can also minimise Hawthorn’s forward fifty entries, which will be the key to stopping the Hawks’ imposing forward line comprising the likes of Roughead, Breust, and Gunston getting off the chain and racking up a big score.
Defensive game style holds up in finals
It has been debated extensively all season – can Fremantle kick enough goals to be a premiership threat and does the trademark Ross Lyon defence-first game style hold up against teams such as West Coast and Hawthorn who score more heavily and seemingly easily than the negating Dockers?
How will Fremantle contain the Hawks this week, they ask, given how easily they demolished the Crows? A lot of Hawthorn’s goals in that game were scored off Adelaide’s turnovers. You can mark it down now that Fremantle will not surrender goals so easily on Friday night. They’ll restrict Hawthorn’s avenues to goal, limit turnovers and thereby reduce Hawthorn’s ability to pick up easy and opportunistic scoring opportunities. The Hawks will be made to earn their goals.
Of course, to win, Fremantle needs to score enough goals. If they can recreate the swift ball movement they displayed in the first half of the season, have their small forwards firing and kick accurately then there’s no reason they can’t score enough goals to win.
Remember, the Hawks scored just 77 points to beat Fremantle in the 2013 Grand Final – talk of needing to score 100 points or more to win a game is arbitrary and wrong.
Summary
The Dockers have been written off all season but they won’t be giving external perceptions much thought or credence. The moment of truth for the Dockers arrives on Friday night, a Preliminary Final under lights on the big stage at Domain Stadium.
There’s only one way this debate can be settled – the result of Friday night’s game. Should Freo lose, the critics will be proven right. Should the Dockers beat the Hawks … well, we’ll probably have yet another week of hearing about how and why they can’t win the Grand Final!
But with the enormous challenge ahead against an opponent who must be respected, this is a time that the old cliche of taking it one game at a time actually rings true.
But make no mistake, Fremantle are every chance to beat the Hawks this weekend.